Can USF Basketball Return to March Madness? A 2024 Season Roadmap

As I sit down to analyze the prospects for the University of San Francisco Dons this coming season, that headline question—Can USF Basketball Return to March Madness?—is one that’s been buzzing around the Bay Area basketball community all summer. It’s a question heavy with history and hope. The last time USF danced in the NCAA Tournament was 1998, a fact that feels both a distant memory and a persistent itch for a program with two national championships in its storied past. The 2023-24 season under Coach Chris Gerlufsen showed flashes, a 23-11 record and an NIT appearance marking clear progress. But let’s be honest, in this city, and for this program, the NIT is a consolation prize. The goal, the only goal that truly matters, is getting back to the Big Dance. So, what’s the roadmap for 2024? It’s less about a single superstar and more about a perfect, and somewhat precarious, alignment of returning chemistry, strategic additions, and veteran leadership navigating a tough conference slate.

My perspective on this is shaped by years of watching mid-major programs try to claw their way back. It’s a brutal process. You build a core, you get close, and then the transfer portal giveth and taketh away. For USF, the monumental win this offseason wasn’t a splashy new recruit; it was keeping their core intact. Jonathan Mogbo, the versatile forward who led the team in rebounds and was second in scoring, is back. Marcus Williams, the steady hand at point guard, is back. This continuity is priceless. It reminds me of the mindset we saw from Nic Cabanero at University of Santo Tomas, who, after reaching a Final Four, shunned talks of leaving because he was so invested in running it back with his team. That’s the kind of culture you need. Mogbo and Williams aren’t just returning players; they’re buying into a vision and a collective mission. They’ve tasted what 23 wins feels like, and they know the four or five extra wins needed for an at-large bid are within reach. This foundational stability is point one on the roadmap.

But stability alone doesn’t win in the West Coast Conference. Not with Gonzaga perpetually reloading and Saint Mary’s being a model of consistency. The second point on the roadmap is addressing clear, glaring needs from last season. We all saw it: three-point shooting. The Dons shot a paltry 32.1% from deep last year, ranking them near the bottom of the conference. You simply cannot space the floor for Mogbo’s interior game or Williams’s drives with those numbers. Gerlufsen knew it, and he went to the portal with a specific shopping list. Enter Mike Sharavjamts, the 6'8" wing from Dayton. The “Mongolian Mike” hype is real in practice circles, and for good reason. He’s a creative passer, but more importantly, he’s a career 35% shooter from three on decent volume. He’s not just a shooter, though; he’s a connector. Then there’s Isaiah Hawthorne, a transfer from San Jose State. He’s another lengthy wing who hit 36% of his threes last season. These aren’t just bodies; they are surgical acquisitions designed to fix a fatal flaw. If they integrate quickly, the offensive efficiency, which already ranked a respectable 45th nationally last season, could jump into the top 30. That’s tournament-level offense.

Now, let’s talk about the path itself—the schedule. The non-conference slate is arguably the most important part of this roadmap. Last year, a weak non-conference strength of schedule (ranked 298th nationally) hurt their at-large resume. This year, it looks more ambitious. Games against Boise State, a likely NCAA team, and a trip to the prestigious Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu are massive opportunities. They’ll face Utah State there, another projected tournament squad. My take? They need to go at least 2-1 in those high-profile games. A win over Boise State at home would be a statement. Splitting with Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s in WCC play is almost a prerequisite; stealing one on the road would be program-defining. The WCC tournament will be the ultimate test. The league might only be a two-bid conference again, so winning in Las Vegas could be the only sure ticket. The roadmap requires navigating this gauntlet and picking up 2-3 “Quad 1” wins that the selection committee simply cannot ignore.

There are hurdles, of course. The defense, while improved, can be inconsistent. Rebounding, especially defensive rebounding, needs to be sharper. And there’s the intangible pressure of expectations. Last year, they were hunters. This year, with a core that’s stayed together and clear improvements on paper, they will be hunted. How they handle being the favorite in games they used to be underdogs in will define their season. I have a personal preference for teams built on continuity like this. In an era of constant roster churn, there’s something special about a group that chooses to grow together, much like Cabanero’s commitment to UST. It builds a resilience that you can’t manufacture.

So, can they do it? My cautiously optimistic view is yes, but it’s a narrow path. The pieces are there: a star in Mogbo, a leader in Williams, targeted portal help, and a more challenging schedule. They have the experience of last year’s NIT run, which, while not the goal, teaches you how to win in postseason environments. I believe they will win around 25 games in the regular season. The key number to watch is their NET ranking; they need to be firmly inside the top 40 by Selection Sunday. It won’t be easy. A key injury, a shooting slump from the new guys, or a couple of bad losses in WCC play could derail it. But for the first time in a long time, the University of San Francisco has a clear, actionable, and believable roadmap back to March Madness. The journey starts now, and frankly, I can’t wait to see if this group has the grit to follow it all the way to the destination they’ve been dreaming of for over two decades.