How the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery Odds Determined Team Fortunes and Future Stars

As I sit here reflecting on the most fascinating NBA draft lotteries in recent memory, the 2018 edition stands out as a true game-changer that reshaped multiple franchises in ways we're still witnessing today. I remember watching that lottery drawing with particular interest because the new odds system introduced that year promised to level the playing field, giving the worst teams slightly better protection while preventing outright tanking. The tension in the room was palpable as team representatives nervously awaited their fate, knowing that landing a top pick could transform their organization overnight.

The background to this pivotal moment traces back to the NBA's growing concern about competitive balance. For years, there had been mounting criticism that the previous lottery system incentivized losing, with teams sometimes blatantly resting healthy players late in seasons to improve their draft positioning. This reminded me of a conversation I had with a coach from the Philippine basketball scene who told me, "Hindi na namin pinapayagan yung mga ganyan para makaiwas sa injuries," explaining how they'd prevent certain activities to avoid injuries. He added, "Yung mga tune up games nga this week sinasabihan namin na easy-easy na lang," emphasizing how even in preparatory games, they'd advise players to take it easy. This mindset unfortunately had crept into the NBA, where the temptation to strategically lose became too pronounced, prompting the league to implement reforms.

When the 2018 lottery arrived, the new odds meant that the three worst teams—the Phoenix Suns, Memphis Grizzlies, and Dallas Mavericks—each had only a 14% chance at the top pick rather than the previous 25% for the worst team. Meanwhile, teams with somewhat better records saw their odds improve slightly. I recall thinking this would create more suspense, and boy was I right. The actual results delivered shocking outcomes that defied probabilities. The Sacramento Kings, who had the seventh-worst record with just a 6% chance, jumped to the second pick. The Atlanta Hawks, with just 3% odds for the top selection, somehow landed the third pick. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies, who had the second-worst record, fell all the way to fourth.

The ripple effects of these lottery results have been nothing short of extraordinary. The Phoenix Suns, despite having the best odds, ended up with the first pick and selected Deandre Ayton, who has developed into a solid if not spectacular center. But the real story emerged from the later picks—Luka Dončić going third to Atlanta before being traded to Dallas, and Trae Young heading to Atlanta in that swap. Looking back, I firmly believe this trade will go down as one of the most consequential in recent NBA history, with both franchises getting franchise cornerstones but Dallas clearly emerging with the better end of the deal. Dončić has already racked up four First-Team All-NBA selections by age 25, while Young has made just one All-Star appearance in the weaker Eastern Conference.

What fascinates me most about the 2018 draft class is how it demonstrates that draft position alone doesn't determine success. The Denver Nuggets found Michael Porter Jr. at 14th despite his injury concerns, while the Los Angeles Clippers landed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 11th, who has since blossomed into an MVP candidate in Oklahoma City. These selections show that scouting and development matter just as much as draft position, if not more. I've always argued that teams should focus on building strong developmental systems rather than obsessing over draft lottery odds, and the success stories from this draft class reinforce that perspective.

The long-term impact on team fortunes has been dramatic. The Dallas Mavericks, who initially had just a 6% chance at a top-three pick before the lottery, ended up with Dončić and have returned to consistent playoff contention, even making the Western Conference Finals in 2022. The Atlanta Hawks, with Trae Young, reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021 but have since struggled with consistency. The Sacramento Kings used their surprise second pick on Marvin Bagley III, who failed to meet expectations, while passing on Dončić and Young—a decision that set their rebuild back several years until they finally broke their playoff drought in 2023.

From my perspective as someone who's followed the NBA for decades, the 2018 lottery represents a fascinating case study in how chance and preparation intersect in team building. The new odds system accomplished its goal of reducing the incentive for outright tanking, but it also introduced more variability that can either accelerate or derail franchise trajectories. I can't help but wonder how different the league would look if the lottery results had unfolded differently—if Memphis had landed a top pick instead of falling, or if Sacramento had chosen Dončić instead of Bagley. These what-ifs highlight how thin the margin between success and failure can be in professional sports.

As we look at the current NBA landscape, the fingerprints of the 2018 draft lottery are everywhere. The Mavericks have built their entire identity around Dončić, the Hawks have experienced both the highs and lows of building around Young, and several other franchises are still feeling the effects of their decisions that night. The lottery system continues to evolve—the NBA has since flattened the odds even further—but the 2018 edition marked a turning point in how teams approach the draft and team construction. In my view, while the system isn't perfect, it represents an improvement over the previous format, creating more suspense while marginally reducing the rewards for being terrible. The true lesson from 2018, however, is that luck in the lottery matters far less than what teams do with their opportunities, a principle that extends well beyond basketball into how we approach uncertainty in our own lives and professions.