NBA Finals 2017 Series Odds: Expert Predictions and Betting Analysis

Looking back at the 2017 NBA Finals, I can still vividly recall the electric anticipation surrounding what many considered a foregone conclusion. Years later, that partnership between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers is finally a go in terms of historical perspective, but back then, we were witnessing the culmination of a rivalry that had captured the basketball world's imagination. As someone who's analyzed NBA odds for over a decade, I've rarely seen a championship series with such clearly defined favorites and underdogs. The Warriors entered those finals with staggering -1000 odds to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy, while the Cavaliers stood as +650 underdogs - numbers that tell you everything about the perceived gap between these teams.

What made those odds particularly fascinating was how they reflected Golden State's historic regular season. Having added Kevin Durant to a roster that had just posted the best regular season record in NBA history the previous year, the Warriors weren't just favorites - they were potential legends in the making. I remember sitting with fellow analysts the week before Game 1, and we all agreed this might be the most talented starting five ever assembled. The betting markets reflected this universal belief, with the Warriors covering the spread in approximately 65% of their playoff games leading into the finals. From my professional standpoint, the -1000 moneyline wasn't just about this series - it was an acknowledgment of Golden State's sheer dominance throughout the entire season.

The Cavaliers presented an interesting counter-argument though, particularly with LeBron James playing what I consider some of the most complete basketball of his career. Cleveland's offense during those playoffs was historically efficient, scoring around 121 points per 100 possessions according to the advanced metrics we were tracking. Their +650 odds actually presented what I thought was decent value for a team featuring the best player in the world. I've always been somewhat contrarian in my betting approach, and while I never seriously believed Cleveland would win the series, I did advise several professional clients that the +650 represented one of the better long-shot opportunities we'd seen in recent finals history.

When we dive into the actual series predictions, what stood out was how the individual game odds evolved throughout the five-game contest. Golden State opened as 7-point favorites for Game 1 at Oracle Arena, a number that seemed almost conservative given their home dominance. The Warriors had gone 8-0 straight up at home during those playoffs, covering the spread in six of those contests. My personal prediction was that Golden State would win in five games, though I must admit I nearly changed that to a sweep after watching their defensive intensity in the series opener. What many casual observers missed was how the Warriors' defensive rotations had improved dramatically from their regular season form - they were holding opponents to just 41% shooting in the paint during those playoffs.

The betting landscape shifted dramatically after Golden State's 113-91 Game 1 victory. The series price moved from -1000 to what I recall was approximately -1400, while the Cavaliers drifted to around +900. This is where experience really matters in sports analysis - I've learned that the biggest mistakes often come from overreacting to single games. While everyone was jumping on the Warriors sweep bandwagon, I maintained my five-game prediction because I understood Cleveland's resilience. Having studied LeBron's teams for years, I knew they'd find a way to win at least one game, particularly with the supporting cast performing better than expected. Kyrie Irving was shooting 46% from three-point range in the playoffs, and Kevin Love was grabbing nearly 12 rebounds per game - numbers that suggested Cleveland had enough firepower to avoid embarrassment.

Game 3 in Cleveland provided the series' most intriguing betting opportunity from my perspective. The Cavaliers were getting 4.5 points at home, which seemed like a gift given their 8-1 straight up home record in those playoffs. This is where personal preference comes into play - I've always believed in betting on elite talent as home underdogs, and LeBron James certainly qualified. I recommended several professional clients take Cleveland +4.5, though I cautioned against the moneyline because Golden State's clutch performance throughout the season had been remarkable. The Warriors had won an incredible 88% of their games that were within five points in the final five minutes, a statistic that highlighted their closing ability.

What made the 2017 finals particularly interesting from an analytical standpoint was how the betting markets struggled to properly price Golden State's historic offensive efficiency. The Warriors were scoring approximately 118 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs, a number that would have led the regular season by a significant margin. This created value opportunities throughout the series, particularly on totals betting. The over/for Game 4 opened at 227.5, which seemed astronomically high at the time but actually represented solid value for the over given both teams' defensive tendencies in the series. This is where having court-level insight matters - having attended several playoff games that year, I could see how the pace of these matchups naturally led to higher scoring outcomes than the regular season numbers suggested.

Reflecting on the series years later, the partnership between these two franchises had reached its competitive peak, even if the outcome felt inevitable. The Warriors closed the series as -2500 favorites after taking a 3-0 lead, numbers that you simply don't see in professional sports outside of truly historic mismatches. My final assessment is that the 2017 finals represented both the culmination of superteam construction and the limitations of betting markets in properly pricing historic greatness. The Warriors didn't just beat the spread in four of the five games - they redefined what we consider possible in terms of team-building and offensive execution. For bettors and analysts alike, the main lesson was recognizing when conventional analysis fails against unprecedented talent. Sometimes, the obvious choice is the correct one, no matter how boring that might seem from a narrative perspective. The 2017 Warriors taught us that when history is being made, the smartest bet might just be on the side of destiny.