What Were the Actual Odds for the 2017 NBA Championship Winner?

I still remember watching that 2017 NBA Finals like it was yesterday, sitting with my buddies and debating whether the Warriors could complete their historic run after that incredible 73-9 regular season. The atmosphere was electric, and honestly, most of us felt like we were witnessing something special - a team that seemed destined to win from the very beginning. But when we dive into the actual odds and probabilities, the story gets much more fascinating than simple destiny.

Looking back at the betting markets and statistical models from that season, the Warriors entered the playoffs as overwhelming favorites, with most sportsbooks giving them around -250 odds to win the championship. That translates to an implied probability of roughly 71% - staggering numbers when you consider they'd be facing LeBron James and the Cavaliers in what everyone expected would be a Finals rematch. What many casual fans don't realize is that these odds shifted dramatically throughout the season. Before Kevin Durant joined Golden State, the Warriors were sitting at about +140 to win it all, meaning a $100 bet would net you $140 if they won. After Durant's signing, those odds immediately dropped to -120, making them the clear favorites before a single game had even been played.

The statistical models told an even more compelling story. FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO system gave the Warriors a 57% chance of winning the championship heading into the playoffs, while ESPN's Basketball Power Index was even more bullish at 68.3%. These numbers might seem conservative now, given how dominant that Warriors team turned out to be, but at the time, analysts were still accounting for potential injuries, team chemistry issues, and the simple reality that playoff basketball introduces variables that regular season models can't fully capture. I remember arguing with fellow analysts who thought the Spurs or even the Rockets might pose serious threats - but deep down, watching that Warriors team play, you could just feel they were operating on a different level entirely.

What's particularly interesting is how the odds evolved during the playoffs themselves. After sweeping through the first three rounds with a 12-0 record, the Warriors' championship probability peaked at 96% in some models before the Finals even began. The Cavaliers, despite having LeBron playing at an absolutely supernatural level, were given only about a 15% chance by most bookmakers. This reminds me of that TNT Tropang Giga game you referenced - where they built that massive 61-41 halftime lead against San Miguel Beermen. Just like in that Philippine basketball clash, early dominance can create statistical advantages that feel insurmountable, but as we saw in both cases, no lead is completely safe until the final buzzer sounds.

The money flow told another dimension of this story. Despite the Warriors being heavy favorites, approximately 68% of the money placed on the championship winner was on Golden State. This public betting pattern created some interesting value opportunities on Cleveland, though I have to admit, I was firmly in the Warriors camp myself. Having studied their offensive efficiency ratings - they finished the regular season with a historic 115.6 offensive rating - and their net rating of +11.6, it was hard to imagine any team beating them in a seven-game series. Their defense was equally impressive, ranking second in the league behind only the Spurs.

When we examine the actual championship series, the Warriors' dominance became even more apparent statistically. They closed out the Cavaliers in five games, with an average margin of victory of 8.4 points in their wins. Their offensive rating in the Finals was an incredible 119.5, while holding Cleveland to 110.5. The probability models had finally caught up to what many of us had felt intuitively - this was one of the greatest teams ever assembled, and their championship was less an upset and more a statistical inevitability.

Reflecting on it now, what stands out to me is how the odds never truly reflected the Warriors' actual dominance. Even at their peak probability of 96%, I'd argue they were still undervalued. Their combination of shooting, defense, and versatility was something the league had never seen before. The way they could flip a switch and dominate quarters - much like how TNT Tropang Giga controlled that first half against San Miguel - made them nearly impossible to beat in a series format. Both teams demonstrated that early dominance, while not guaranteeing victory, creates statistical advantages that are incredibly difficult to overcome.

The 2017 Warriors championship run teaches us valuable lessons about probability, team construction, and the limitations of predictive models. Sometimes, you just have to trust what you're seeing on the court rather than getting lost in the numbers. The odds said they had a 71% chance at the season's start, but watching them play, it felt more like 90%. And in the end, the reality matched what many of us felt in our bones - this was a team destined for greatness, probabilities be damned.